2009-10 NBA Preview: Five Things to Watch
By Michael Kelly Every NBA season is filled with unexpected subplots that emerge, but what can we already be looking forward to? Here are five questions we know we will be getting answers to this season. Are we ready for the leap Kevin Durant is about to make? He only hit the drinking age a little less than a month ago, he resides in one of the league’s smallest markets and he plays on a team that has a mascot that about 99.8 percent of the basketball-loving population would be unable to identify. So, are we ready to see the video game-worthy stat lines he is about to put up? Clearly not. We barely even know him. Which is why what he is about to do this year is going to be incredible. Last year he averaged 25.3 ppg and 6.5 rpg, while shooting 48 percent from the field. These numbers were a vast improvement from his rookie year, and do not even tell the full story- during a stretch in January and February, check out this string of scoring outputs: 35, 29, 33, 31, 31, 39, 31, 20, 47, 35, 32 and 32. And it is not like he was playing poorly before that. So, what can we expect this year? Well, during his third year another perimeter player who was also growing into his body like Durant still is posted a scoring average of 37.1. Now, that player’s name is Michael Jordan and it may be a bit unfair to expect something that crazy out of Durant, especially in today’s more defensively oriented NBA. But, 32 ppg is definitely within the realm of possibility, and the league knows it- the Oklahoma City Thunder will be on television at least three times this year. Oh- the Thunder’s mascot is a bison. Go figure. Will Greg Oden become what everyone thought he was destined too? Last year’s averages (8.9 ppg, 7.0 rpg, 1.3 bpg) would have been higher if Oden could have stayed out of foul trouble- he averaged a foul every five minutes, approximately. And, it is tough to make a big deal out of the preseason when most teams have guys taking nights off and are playing scrubs roughly half the game. But, humor me. Oden has produced some very high quality games this preseason; against Sacramento on consecutive nights he put up 18 points and nine rebounds, then had 20 and 12; against Phoenix he posted 20 points, 13 rebounds and three blocks. Everyone who has watched Oden over the past few years knows the potential is there, and there does exist a legitimate reason why the Blazers picked him over Durant a few drafts ago. This could be the year he delivers on his promise, if he stays healthy. Which is an Oden-sized if. Outside of Blake Griffin, will any rookie play a significant role? This was written prior to the news that Griffin had broken a kneecap.Oh well. Clippers curse lives on! Probably not, except for a few who may contribute as backups on good teams, such as Ty Lawson who will spell Chauncey Billups in Denver for about 15 minutes a game. But, there are a few possible candidates. Jonny Flynn should be given the reigns to the Timberwolves either on opening night or shortly after. The Syracuse product showed an ability to hit the long jumper and get to the hoop in college, and on a team with few offensive options he will be trusted to create his own shot. Minnesota will be bad, but Flynn could challenge for Rookie of the Year. Stephen Curry is another small guard who could make a big impact if given the time and touches. It is tough to see how he will play alongside another small guard—Monta Ellis—in Golden State, but Don Nelson’s run ‘n gun offense makes it feasible they could thrive together. Griffin included, he is probably the most high-profile rookie, so it will be interesting regardless to see how he plays during his inaugural campaign. And, the wild card- New Jersey’s Terrence Williams. The wing from Louisville is athletic, can defend and can shoot the deep ball. He is a little undisciplined and would not see the light of day on a good team…but the Nets are going to be terrible. With the exception of Devin Harris and Brook Lopez, nobody on this team will be guaranteed even 20 minutes. If Williams gets minutes, he is too athletic and skilled to not put up numbers. Is that really you, Gilbert? Your knee still bends? Gilbert Arenas has essentially missed the last two seasons of play recover from a knee injury sustained in 2007, but he appeared healthy at the very end of last year and has seemed ok in the preseason. But, nobody is talking about him. He has become the forgotten superstar. Before his injury he had posted three straight outstanding scoring seasons— 25.5, 29.3, 28.4—and had entered into the conversation of "Who is the league’s most dangerous player?" But, is he really, truly healthy? My hunch is yes, and here’s why—the guy took two years off. Usually players with knee injuries end up hurting themselves long-term by coming back too quickly, and you certainly cannot say that Arenas and the Wizards did not decide to err on the side of caution with how they handled him. If you remember, he was deemed healthy enough to play last season with about 30 games to play, but Washington elected to sit him anyways because their season was already lost. If Arenas ever had a shot of being healthy again, then the two years of rest he received was the best way for him to recover. What’s LeBron got in store for us? In the past week or so, we learned that LeBron James had a cancer scare earlier this year, and that he may or may not have the H1N1 virus. So, in terms of drama, he has been far from disappointing. The past week may have been his way of introducing us to the circus that this upcoming season will be for the league’s face- his impending free agency is officially knocking on the door, and his team may or may not be a train-wreck after upsetting chemistry by adding Shaquille O’Neal and standing by Delonte West despite his, um, eccentricities. Will he post unbelievable numbers? Of course. Anything less than 28/7/7 would be shocking, and he will again be a regular feature on Sportcenter’s top plays and the cover of every magazine. But, his year will be defined by how he handles his upcoming free agency, even more so than how successful his team is or how well he plays. Will he remain coy about resigning with Cleveland and will he embrace the cheers he will surely receive when his visits Madison Square Garden? |
