Breaking Down the NBA's First Round

By Michael Kelly

This year’s first round has numerous storylines for us to follow, ranging from how far can a one-man team go (Dwyane Wade’s Heat), to a perennial contender finally giving ground (San Antonio Spurs) and to the defending champion Boston Celtics trying to protect their throne from a new king (James) without Kevin Garnett.

Some critique the NBA’s playoffs for dragging on for too long, but this year the quality of the games and subplots we have will justify the length. Here is how the first round will play out.

Eastern Conference

No. 1 Cleveland Cavaliers vs. No. 8 Detroit Pistons

If you had asked an avid NBA follower when they might see this matchup in the playoffs at the beginning of the season, most would have said it would probably take until the conference finals. But, a failed trade (giving away Chauncey Billups for Allen Iverson) and a forgettable season (the Pistons won 39 games this year, 20 less than last season) later, we have this matchup in the first round.

The Cavaliers had a monstrous season, going 39-2 at home with a 66-16 record overall. LeBron James (28.4 ppg, 7.6 rpg, 7.2 apg) carried the team to new heights with the help of point guard Mo Williams (17.8 ppg) this season, helped by a staunch team defense (91.4 points against). They enter this year’s playoffs as every bit as formidable as last year’s Celtics did.

Meanwhile, the Pistons are limping into this series. They ended the regular season by losing three straight games, and six out of their last 10. Rasheed Wallace is not healthy, and Billups-replacement Rodney Stuckey has found himself in a diminished role because of his poor play. While Rip Hamilton and Tayshaun Prince are still playing at a high level, there is little else here. They might steal one game at home, but they have no chance of winning any games in Cleveland.

The Pick: Cleveland, in four games.

No. 2 Boston Celtics vs. No. 7 Chicago Bulls

With Head Coach Doc Rivers doubting Garnett's availability for the 2009 playoffs, this first round match-up is a scary one for Boston fans. The Bulls have depth, and are a team filled with young athletes who are a bit quicker and stronger than their Boston counterparts. If Boston comes into this series feeling sorry for themselves because of their situation, they will go home early.

For the Bulls, the midseason addition of John Salmons (18.3 ppg) was a huge boost, and the play of Tyrus Thomas of late (April stats- 14.2 ppg, 6.2 rpg, 2.3 bpg) has lifted them to a new level. It will be interesting to see how Derrick Rose does on this stage in his first year, but you have to like his chances after his solid play in last year’s NCAA National Championship game.

But, the Celtics still have a little too much firepower for these Bulls who look to be about a year or two away. Allen and Pierce have enough in their tanks to take out the Bulls without Garnett, though they will need the Glen Davis/Leon Powe tandem to give them something from the power forward position.

The Pick: Boston, in six games.

No. 3 Orlando Magic vs. No. 6 Philadelphia 76ers

This series looks to be a bit of mismatch- both teams play a run-and-gun style offensively, but the Magic have the big man in Dwight Howard that the 76ers knew they needed when they signed Elton Brand. Now, Brand was never effective for the 76ers this season, but he would have provided someone down low to bang with Howard. Without a reliable big man, it is tough to see the 76ers doing much in this series.

The Pick: Orlando, in five games

No. 4 Atlanta Hawks vs. No. 5 Miami Heat

This might not produce the best quality games, but it is easily the most intriguing series of the first round. The Hawks pushed the Celtics to seven games last year and proved it was no fluke with their play this year. Mike Bibby (14.9 ppg) rebounded to have a great year, and Joe Johnson (21.4 ppg, 5.8 apg) was stellar as always.

Miami is as close to a one man team as we have in this year’s playoffs, but lucky for them, that one man is Dwyane Wade. The man known as Flash turned in an unbelievable season (30.2 ppg, 7.5 apg, 2.2 spg), and single-handedly pushed this team from the lottery into the middle of the conference title race.

It will be interesting to see if the Hawks choose to guard Wade with Johnson. The Hawks’ shooting guard would be their most effective defender against Wade, but would likely have a negative influence on his offensive game or possibly help him find his way to the pine with foul trouble.

The Hawks are clearly the better team, but Wade can easily turn his series himself. He has been that good this year.

The Pick: Miami, in six games.

Western Conference

No. 1 Los Angeles Lakers vs. No. 8 Utah Jazz

The Jazz had themselves a year to forget because of all the injuries they had, and these playoffs will probably be forgettable for their fans as well. The Lakers are the deepest and most talented team in the league by far this season, and have the high-level superstar in Kobe Bryant that the Jazz lack (sorry Deron Williams).

The Lakers maintained their intensity throughout the season, but the whole time you felt like they knew they would only be judged by their postseason performance. While the Celtics entered last year’s playoffs under the same circumstances and failed to win early playoffs rounds in a quick fashion—they went to seven games in their first two rounds—do not expect the same from these Lakers.

The Pick: Los Angeles, in five games.

No. 2 Denver Nuggets vs. No. 7 New Orleans Hornets

We might see our first big upset of the playoffs in this series- in short, the season Chauncey Billups had in turning these Nuggets around was remarkable, but the former Piston cannot guard Chris Paul and nobody else on the roster can either. For the past two years, Paul has been an elite level point guard, arguably the best there is in the game.

After this season you can remove the arguably.

The numbers he put up this year (22.8 ppg, 11 apg, 2.8 spg) are gaudy, even by his standards. His quickness and ability to get into the paint at will are especially useful against a defense like the one Denver has which has slower perimeter players and no real reliable big men down low to guard the hoop with authority. If Paul wants to, he could very easily put up 30 points and 15 assists per game in this series because of the inability of Denver to guard him.

It is odd to say this of the favorite in a series, bur Denver does have a puncher’s chance. Their top two players (Carmelo Anthony and Billups) are better than the Hornets top two (Paul and David West), and they have proven to be a more durable team this year when compared to the often injury-plagued Hornets. If J.R. Smith is hitting his three, and Billups is able to slow the game down enough to render Paul not as dominant, the Nuggets can win this series. But, just don’t bet on it happening.

The Pick: New Orleans, in six games.

No. 3 San Antonio Spurs vs. No. 6 Dallas Mavericks

This Dallas team has been uninspiring all season long. Meanwhile, the Spurs have provided basketball fans with a gutsy effort in the face of a season torn apart by injuries to their trio of stars.

With no Manu Ginobili, the Spurs have to rely on Tim Duncan and Tony Parker for their scoring. Duncan has struggled a little bit as the season has winded down, but he was able to rest up enough where he should have enough in his tank, at least for this series. And, if fully healthy and rested, nobody on the Mavs can stop Duncan from getting his 25-30 points per game in this series.

Dallas needs to get a great series out of Josh Howard. If halfway through this series it becomes apparent that Jose Juan Barea is a better option for the Mavs as it has been for most of this season, then they are in serious trouble. Dirk Nowitzki and Jason Terry have been fantastic all season long, but that duo needs either Howard or Jason Kidd to step up and really give the team something if they are going to topple the Spurs.

The Pick: San Antonio, in six games.

No. 4 Portland Trail Blazers vs. No. 5 Houston Rockets

These teams had nearly identical seasons; they finished within a game of each other, and averaged astoundingly close points for (99.4, 98.4) and points against (94.1, 94.4) for the season.

Portland would seem to have the upper hand because their team is fully healthy, while the Tracy McGrady-less Rockets are giving significant minutes to guys like Aaron Brooks and Kyle Lowry. But, Houston has played extremely well since losing McGrady for the season.

This series will likely come down to a single matchup- Portland’s Brandon Roy against the duo of Ron Artest and Shane Battier on the offensive end for the Blazers. Roy became an elite player this year in the league, establishing himself as one of the top clutch scorers in the game. Artest and Battier are the best defensive duo in the league, and have 12 fouls to use on the young Roy.

This series will provide some slugfest basketball, as both teams will look to slow the pace and to play great defense.

The Pick: Houston, in seven games.