American League East Preview

By Dan Aldarondo

1.) New York Yankees

Why they will win the division:
Coming off of a season that saw their 13 straight playoff appearances come to an end, the Yankees made all the necessary signings they needed to do to get themselves back into October play. The addition of Mark Teixeira brings in a switch hitter who has hit over .300 three of his last four seasons and has played over 145 games in five of his first six years in the league.

The pitching staff has also received a major facelift, signing starting pitchers CC Sabathia and A.J. Burnett. Both pitchers are able to take the load off their defense and retire batters without putting the ball into play. With Chien-Ming Wang, Andy Pettitte, and Joba Chamberlain filling up the other half of the rotation, the Yankees could have (barring injuries) the best pitching staff in the majors. With four pitchers capable of going seven innings regularly, the bullpen will be able to save their arms for September and beyond.

Oh yeah, they have that Mariano Rivera guy too. He’s not too bad.

How they could finish lower:
You can say injuries would riddle any team, but this would definitely spell doom for the Yankees. Reports initially said Alex Rodriguez would not be ready until the middle of May, however recent information is saying that he may be back sooner. Even so, the condition Rodriguez will come back in is uncertain, and it may take him a few weeks to get into the swing of things. Cody Ransom will be plugged into hot corner while Rodriguez is gone, but the other veteran skill position players (Jorge Posada, Derek Jeter, Hideki Matsui, Johnny Damon) will need to step up their offensive game in the absence of A-Rod. With several players going into the latter stages of their career, nagging injuries will play a huge role and even if they avoid them, chances are they will not put up career numbers offensively. Robinson Cano cannot wait until the second half of the year to start hitting, which has been a theme during his career. Posada is coming off a shoulder injury that will give running teams the green light to go on him whenever he’s catching behind the plate (even more than they used to). Burnett, in his 10 years career, has only appeared in 30 or more games in a single season three times.

Players to watch:
Brett Gardner will begin the season as the Yankees starting center fielder, and will hopefully provide a spark toward the bottom of the lineup with his blazing speed. If he’s capable of keeping his on-base percentage around the .350 mark, then Gardner has the potential to steal 40 bags.

Brian Bruney will shoulder the majority of appearances in the set-up role after posting a 1.83 ERA and 0.99 WHIP last season that was shortened due to injury. Although he had a subpar spring training, Bruney will look to provide a bridge to Rivera that back during the dynasty years was a key part to the team's success.

2.) Tampa Bay Rays

Why they will finish second:
Good pitching more often than not beats good hitting, and the Rays have excellent pitching. Whoever has the best pitching staff in the east will be the top team in the division, and with the improvements the Yankees made the Rays fall just a bit short in that category. Still, this position in the American League will yield the wild card, where the Rays will make some noise once they are there.

How they could finish higher:
The reigning AL-champs should only get better since none of their starting skill position players exceed the age of 30 and the senior member of the starting pitching staff checks in at 27 years young. If the Yankee pitching staff does not meet expectations, the Rays starters will be the most dominant in the league. How good are they? Pitching phenom David Price’s coming out party last October was not enough for him to earn a spot on the opening day roster heading into 2009. Price is expected to make an appearance and remain with the team later on in the season so his inning count can stay low (Joba Chamberlain anyone?) and work on the command of his ancillary pitches. The Rays bolstered their offensive lineup by adding Pat Burrell from the team they fell to in the World Series. Burrell will give the Rays a power hitter from the right side of the plate, something Tampa lacked last season. With expected improvements all around the diamond, the Rays easily are one of the top 5 teams in the league (top 3 in my personal opinion).

How they could finish lower:
With exceptional young players and pitchers, one could wonder whether or not teams will start to figure out how to get the Rays hitters out or get hits off of the pitching staff. Teams will look at the Rays and not see a cellar-dweller anymore, but the champions of the American League. With that in mind teams will not sleep on the Rays like they have in season past. With improved pitching within the division, the Rays will need to take that next step forward or the 2008 Rays will just be a cute story. Troy Percival is very old, and his last month of the season was subpar to be nice: 9 games, 0-1, 6.2 IP, 9.45 ERA, 1 save, 1 blown save, 1 hold.
If Percival puts up similar numbers to these, the Rays will have to bump Jason Isringhausen up from setup man to closer, which in effect weakens the bullpen overall.

Players to watch:
Carl Crawford has moved from the top of the order to the middle which means he will have fewer at bats but more with runners on base. Even though he was out for the last month of the season, Crawford’s speed numbers were down (stole 25 out of 32 bags in 109 games last season, while in his five previous seasons he never stole less than 46 bases, including going over 50 in four seasons).

At 25-years-old, Scott Kazmir is already entering his sixth year in the majors. Kazmir needs to be more economical with his pitches, as most of his appearance last season rarely exceeded six innings pitched yet he constantly eclipsed the 100-pitch plateau. If he plays a full season like he did in 2007, expect Kazmir to be in the discussion for AL Cy Young.

3.) Boston Red Sox

Why they will finish third:
Again the theme in this division between the top three teams is pitching, and the Red Sox check in as the third best in the east. While their hitting will be up there with the Yanks and Rays, I feel like their pitching just doesn’t have as much upside as their counterparts. If the Red Sox were in any other division, they would probably win it.

How they could finish higher:
If they finish higher, it would not be a surprise to me at all. Jason Bay is no Manny Ramirez, but he definitely was a suitable replacement late last season. The Red Sox did what the Yankees could not do the past few seasons; bring in talented veterans while infusing the team with up-and-coming talent as well. Of the top three teams in the AL East, the Red Sox have the most balance of young talent to go along with great veteran play. Dustin Pedroia is the reigning MVP and his play should continue to get better along with Jacoby Ellsbury. The Red Sox brought in starting pitchers Brad Penny and John Smoltz. Both players signed contracts that were low on the risk-end and if they perform like they are capable of then the reward will be high. The bullpen is anchored by Jonathan Papelbon, who will strikeout well over a batter per inning and is one of the few players on the team who still exhibits the swagger that his 2004 teammate had.

How they could finish lower:
Jason Varitek is bad. Varitek must be quite the leader to keep his status as starter catcher. David Ortiz claims to have fully recovered from his injured wrist, but batting .313 in spring training should not be considered an accurate barometer for a player being completely healthy. Echoes of Mo Vaughn have been heard since Ortiz has returned from the injury. Daisuke Matsuzaka loves to flirt with disaster. If he duplicates his AL-leading walk total (94), chances are he will not match his win total as well (18).

Players to watch:
Jon Lester is no longer just that pitcher who overcame cancer. Now he has emerged as an excellent starting pitcher. He provided excellent late season pitching (2.14 ERA during the last month of the season, 2.36 ERA in four playoff starts) and next to Josh Beckett, Lester is the most consistent starter the Sox have. Look for Lester to put up AT LEAST the same stats he had last season.

Jed Lowrie is entering his first full season in the majors as the Red Sox starting shortstop as Julio Lugo recovers from a knee injury. While Lugo is due back during the middle of April, Lowrie has a chance to hold on to the position if he can put up better numbers than Lugo. In 81 games last season, Lowrie hit .258 and drove in 46 runs.

4.) Toronto Blue Jays

Why they will finish fourth:
The AL East is one heck of a division. What sort of season would the Blue Jays have had in ’09 if they were in the AL West? Well, that’s not the situation. The loss of A.J. Burnett may cause the Blue Jays to fall below .500, which they have not done since 2005. After Roy Halladay, the pitching staff becomes very thin. Alex Rios and Vernon Wells will do the heavy hitting for Toronto, and Adam Lind looks to take a step forward as the team’s everyday DH.

How they could finish higher:
Someone on the pitching staff needs to step up. Well, multiple people need to step it up. Since Scott Richmond has only pitched in five games in his career and Ricky Romero has none, it’s imperative that their learning curve is hastened or Jesse Litsch and David Purcey rack up the quality starts. The hitting is there (potentially), and if one of the big three above them falters, the Blue Jays maybe can nudge their way into the top three. After all, when they throw Halladay on the mound, the Blue Jays win. I almost mean this literally.

How they could finish lower:
What could make this team go higher is what also may make it go lower. It’s possible that they won’t have another starter with more than 10 wins at the end of the year besides Halladay. B.J. Ryan has lost some of his velocity, and if they lose him then the bullpen will take a severe hit as Scott Downs (their setup man) would be plugged into the closer role. Marco Scutaro and Rod Barajas will provide substandard hitting, which could only hurt the Blue Jays.

Players to watch:
A candidate for Rookie of the Year honors, Travis Snider will start the season as the Jays starting left fielder. The 21-year-old prospect out of Kirkland, WA will look to inject a little life into a franchise that has had little to cheer about for a long time.

Roy Halladay is awesome. My favorite thing to watch is the ESPN bottom line when Halladay pitches and see “CG, 11 H, 4 ER, 6 K, 1 BB”. The last time Halladay threw nine complete games in one season, he pitched in 21 games the next year. I hope this doesn’t happen, since he’s on one of my fantasy teams.

5.) Baltimore Orioles

Why they will finish last:
In such a stacked division, there needs to be a team that takes the brunt of the losing. Enter the Baltimore Orioles, a team that has emerging talent that may be a year or two away from shaking up the AL East. Their best talent remains in the minors as Matt Weiters will not start with the team (however he should come up soon), and Chris Tillman (Mariners’ Minor League Pitcher of the Year in 2007) has some time to spend in the minors. The pitching is just not there, with Jeremy Guthrie headlining the top of the rotation. In a division where the talent is just overflowing, the Orioles will have to wait their turn in line like the Rays did. Hey, it paid off for them in the end, right?

How they could finish higher:
Adam (not Pac-Man) Jones is a 5-tool player. Experts are saying that 20-20 is certainly in his striking range, and 30-30 may not be too far off as well. Brian Roberts at 31-years-old still has plenty of good seasons in him, and will continue to swipe 30 bags while scoring 100 runs. Who knows what you can get from Melvin Mora at the tender age of 37. But if it’s anything close to the numbers he put up last season, maybe if the Blue Jays have a hiccup then the Orioles can move up and steal the fourth spot (and that’s all they can get).

Players to watch:
Keep an eye out on both Chris Ray and George Sherrill. Even though Ray had the better spring training, Sherrill retained the job as closer after a 33 save season in ’08. Still, if Sherrill slips up and Ray does an excellent job as the setup man, then Ray can see himself being thrust into the role he was in back in 2007 before he had surgery.

Nick Markakis has steadily increased his batting average on base percentage (.306 and .406 in 2008) during his first three seasons in the majors. The 25-year-old from Glen Cove, NY is a large part of this team’s present and future plans. Look for Markakis to put up some more career numbers for years to come.

Like what you read? Then check back on April 5, as the Indie sports writers will break down who will make the playoffs, award winners and more.

Past Previews: AL Central and AL West.